Stratospheric Forecast Monitoring

Several references examined the predictability of stratospheric circulation by using JMA one-month ensemble forecast data:

Mukougawa, H., H. Sakai, and T. Hirooka (2005), "High sensitivity to the initial condition for the prediction of stratospheric sudden warming." Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 (17), L17806. doi:10.1029/2005GL022909.

Hirooka, H., T. Ichimaru, and H. Mukougawa (2007), "Predictability of stratospheric sudden warmings as inferred from ensemble forecast data: Intercomparison of 2001/02 and 2003/04 winters." J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85 (6), 919-925. doi:10.2151/jmsj.85.919.

Noguchi, S., H. Mukougawa, T. Hirooka, M. Taguchi, and S. Yoden (2014), "Month-to-month predictability variations of the winter-time stratospheric polar vortex in an operational one-month ensemble prediction system." J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 92 (6), 543-558. doi:10.2151/jmsj.2014-603.

Ichimaru, T., S. Noguchi, T. Hirooka, and H. Mukougawa (2016), "Predictability changes of stratospheric circulations in northern hemisphere winter." J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 94 (1), 7-24. 10.2151/jmsj.2016-001.

Further references:

Mukougawa, H., and T. Hirooka (2007), "Predictability of the downward migration of the Northern Annular Mode: A case study for January 2003." J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 85 (6), 861-870. doi:10.2151/jmsj.85.861.

Mukougawa, H., T. Hirooka, and Y. Kuroda (2009), "Influence of stratospheric circulation on the predictability of the tropospheric Northern Annular Mode." Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L09914. doi:10.1029/2008GL037127.

Nishii, K., and H. Nakamura (2010), "Three-dimensional evolution of ensemble forecast spread during the onset of a stratospheric sudden warming event in January 2006." Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 894-905. doi:doi:10.1002/qj.607.

Inatsu, M., N. Nakano, S. Kusuoka, and H. Mukougawa (2015), "Predictability of wintertime stratospheric circulation examined using a nonstationary fluctuation–dissipation relation." J. Atmos. Sci., 72 (2), 774-786. doi:10.1175/JAS-D-14-0088.1.