A paper on the ensemble sensitivity analysis has been published in Geophysical Research Letters.
Nakashita, S. & Enomoto, T. (2025). Applicability of ensemble singular vectors to a mesoscale convective system over the East China Sea. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2024GL114502. doi:10.1029/2024GL114502
Figure 1 Comparison of forecast errors estimated by sensitivity analysis and those calculated by numerical simulations. The sensitivity is calculated to maximize the forecast error in the gray rectangle region. The rightmost panel measures the nonlinearity strength from the difference of two numerical simulations with opposite perturbation signs. These figures indicate the sensitivity analysis successfully capture the forecast error pattern similar to the actual errors in numerical simulations, though underestimating its magnitude. Modified Figure 3 in Nakashita and Enomoto (2025).
