Dr Enomoto published a paper on Typhoon Prapiroon and its influence on the Heavy Rainfall in western Japan in July 2019 has been published in SOLA.
He conducted numerical experiments from different initial times to investigate typhoon tracks and reproducibility of the rainfall. In unsuccessful forecasts, Prapiroon deviates westward and does not develop. As a result, warm and moist air from the continent spread in the Sea of Japan and the Baiu frontal zone was not reinforce to produce heavy rainfall. In successful forecasts, the typhoon develops upward to reach the upper troposphere and migrate along the correct track to produce heavy rainfall. Prapiroon attracts both warm and cold air into the centre while migrating northeastward in the Sea of Japan to intensify the Baiu frontal zone. In the initial development stage, a predicted tropical cyclone does not necessarily develop as deep as reality. Dr Enomoto says “simulations of the track and influence with a tropical cyclone with augmented intensity would be useful.”
- Enomoto, T. 2019: Influence of the track forecast of Typhoon Prapiroon on the Heavy Rainfall in western Japan in July 2018. SOLA, 15, 66–71, doi:10.2151/sola.15A-012.